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Malawi Energy Assessment Report

By

AFREPREN/FWD


TABLE OF CONTENT

1.0 OBJECTIVE AND SCOPE OF THE STUDY
2.0 IMPLEMENTATION OF THE STUDY
3.0 METHODOLOGICAL APPROACH
4.0 MAJOR ASSUMPTIONS
4.1 DEMOGRAPHY
4.2 ECONOMY
5.0 ENERGY BALANCE FOR THE BASE YEAR
6.0 KEY FINDINGS
6.1. TOTAL ENERGY DEMAND PROJECTIONS
6.2 ENERGY DEMAND BY SECTOR
6.3 PROJECTION OF ELECTRICITY DEMAND
6.3.1 Projection of peak demand
6.3.2 Projection of electricity demand by sector
7.0 CONCLUSIONS AND RECOMMENDATIONS
7.1 MAIN PROBLEMS ENCOUNTERED AND RECOMMENDATIONS
7.2 MAIN POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS FROM THE STUDY
CHAPTER 1
INTRODUCTION
1.1. BACKGROUND
1.2. OBJECTIVE AND SCOPE OF THE STUDY
1.3. IMPLEMENTATION OF THE STUDY
CHAPTER 2
COUNTRY PROFILE
2.1. GEOGRAPHY AND CLIMATE
2.2. DEMOGRAPHY AND MAJOR DEMOGRAPHIC POLICY ISSUES
2.3. MACRO-ECONOMIC SITUATION AND MAJOR ECONOMIC POLICY ISSUES
2.4. MAJOR ENVIRONMENTAL POLICY ISSUES
CHAPTER 3
3.1 HOUSEHOLD COOKING DEVICES
3.2 HOUSEHOLD REFRIGERATORS
3.3 LIGHTING
3.4 ELECTRIC MOTORS
3.5 AUTOMOBILES
3.6. KEY INDUSTRIAL PROCESSES
CHAPTER 4
28 FINAL ENERGY BALANCE FOR MALAWI
4.1. FINAL ENERGY BALANCE: RETROSPECTIVE AND GENERAL OVERVIEW
4. 2. FINAL ENERGY BALANCE TABLE FOR THE BASE YEAR
4.2.1 Institutional framework for collecting energy and electricity statistics
4.2.2. Final energy balance table covering final-energy use
CHAPTER 5
5.0 ENERGY DEMAND SCENARIOS
5.1. METHODOLOGICAL DESCRIPTION - MAED-D MODEL
5.2. SELECTION OF STUDY TIME FRAME AND BASE YEAR
5.3. RECONSTRUCTION OF THE DETAILED ENERGY BALANCE TABLE
5.3.1. Energy use in Agriculture, Construction and Mining Sectors
5.3.1.1 Definition of sub-sectors in agriculture, construction, and mining sectors
5.3.1.2 Energy intensities
5.3.1.3 Penetration of energy carriers
5.3.1.4 Average efficiencies of energy carriers
5.3.2. Energy use in the manufacturing sector
5.3.2.1 Definition of sub-sectors in the manufacturing sector
5.3.2.2 Energy intensities in the manufacturing sub-sector
5.3.2.3 Shares of thermal energy demand by temperature range
5.3.2.4 Penetration of energy carriers into useful thermal energy demand
5.3.2.5 Efficiency of the energy carriers by temperature range
5.3.3 Energy use in the Service Sector
5.3.3.1 Definition of the sub-sectors in the Service Sector
5.3.3.2 The number of active labour force and floor areas
5.3.3.3 Space heating requirements
5.3.3.4 Share of air-conditioning in service sector
5.3.5.5 Car ownership and distance travelled by car for intercity transportation
5.3.5.6 Energy intensities of passenger transportation
5.3.6. Energy use in household sector
5.3.6.1Classification of households
5.3.6.2 Heating degree-days and share of dwellings requiring space heating
5.3.6.3 Dwellings sizes, cooling and heating requirements
5.3.6.4 Share of electric air-conditioning in rural and urban households
5.3.6.5 Share of dwellings with hot water facilities
5.3.6.6 Specific useful energy consumption for households
5.3.6.7 Penetration of energy carriers into thermal use
5.3.6.8 Efficiencies of energy carriers in households
5.4. SCENARIO DEVELOPMENT
5.4.1. Qualitative description of scenarios
5.4.1.1. Reference Growth scenario
5.4.1.2. Accelerated growth scenario
5.4.1.3. Moderate Growth Scenario
5.4.2. Demographic assumptions
5.4.2.1. Reference Growth Scenario
5.4.2.2. Accelerated Growth Scenario
5.4.2.3. Moderate Growth Scenario
5.4.3. Assumptions on economic growth and structural change of the economy
5.4.3.1. Reference Growth Scenario
5.4.3.2. Accelerated Growth Senario
5.4.3.3. Moderate Growth Scenario
5.4.4. Assumptions on future energy use in industrial sector
5.4.4.1. Reference Growth Scenario
5.4.4.2. Accelerated Growth Scenario
5.4.4.3. Moderate Growth Scenario
5.4.5. Development of parameters for freight transportation
5.4.5.1. Reference Growth Scenario
5.4.5.2. Accelerated Growth Scenario
5.4.5.3. Moderate Growth Scenario
5.4.6. Development of parameters for passenger transportation
5.4.6.1. Reference Growth Scenario
5.4.6.2. Accelerated Growth Scenario
5.4.6.3. Moderate Growth Scenario
5.4.7. Development of parameters on dwelling pattern and energy use in household sector
5.4.7.1. Reference Growth Scenario
5.4.7.2. Accelerated Growth Scenario
5.4.7.3. Moderate Growth Scenario
5.4.8. Assumptions on the service sector development
5.4.8.1. Reference Growth Scenario
5.4.8.2. Accelerated Growth Scenario
5.4.8.3. Moderate Growth Scenario
5.5. ENERGY DEMAND PROJECTIONS
5.5.1. The ranges of total energy demand projections
5.5.2. Detailed analysis of reference scenario
CHAPTER 6
6.0 PROJECTION OF ELECTRICITY LOAD PATTERNS
6.1. METHODOLOGICAL DESCRIPTION MAED - EL MODEL
6.2 FEATURES OF ELECTRICITY LOAD IN MALAWI
6.2.1 Historical electricity consumption pattern
6.2.2 Evolution of System Load Factor
6.2.3 Maximum Demand
6.2. RECONSTRUCTION OF ELECTRICITY LOAD PATTERNS FOR THE BASE YEAR
6.2.1. Definition of major clients within sectors
6.2.2. Shares of electricity demand by major clients within sectors
6.2.3. Transmission/distribution losses
6.2.4.Peak load for the base year obtained from the reconstructed load duration curve is 233 MW while the actual peak load for 2008 was 242 MW
6.2.5. Load modulating coefficients (by week and by day)
6.2.6. Hourly load coefficients by day for the sectors
6.3. PROJECTION OF ELECTRICITY LOAD PATTERNS
6.3.1. Assumptions on the development of the electricity load patterns
6.3.2. Projections of the electricity load patterns
6.3.3 Composition of the National Load Curve
CHAPTER 7
7.0 CONCLUSIONS AND POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS
7.1. MAJOR TASKS ACCOMPLISHED
7.2 MAIN PROBLEMS ENCOUNTERED AND RECOMMENDATIONS
7.3 MAIN POLICY RECOMMENDATIONS FROM THE STUDY

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