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Issue 8 October 2011

JotoAfrika: Adapting to Climate Change in Africa.

Should Africa take the Renewable Energy Path?

(Hydropower in East Africa)

By

Stephen Karekezi

   Research Summary

East Africa depends heavily on hydropower for its electricity – it currently supplies around 79 percent of the region’s electricity. But changing weather patterns including the predicted decline in rainfall could be devastating for countries that lack diversified energy sources. Increased droughts and shorter rainy seasons frequently cripple East Africa’s power sectors, leading to sharp drops in their economic activity. In addition, the ongoing encroachment of agricultural and commercial activities into water catchment areas appears to be making hydropower even more vulnerable to drought and the erratic weather being experienced across the region. At the same time, the changes in rainfall intensity are leading to increased floods. These lead to the rapid build-up of silt in hydropower dams, reducing the amount of water for electricity generation. Governments in East Africa have failed to plan adequately to tackle these crises in their power sectors. At present, their response during power crises is to buy emergency thermal electricity to meet the shortfall in power supplies. But this is expensive and the price is unstable; thermal energy is partly linked to world oil prices, which peaked at US$140 (£90) per barrel in September 2008. To reduce the vulnerability of largescale hydropower generation to drought and floods, governments and electricity companies need to adopt a more robust and resilient plan to deal with power shortfalls. This could be achieved in several ways.

i) Diversify the mix of energy sources: Countries using renewable energy sources to diversify their electricity appear better able to survive the impacts of severe droughts than those relying exclusively on hydropower. For example, Kenya is more resilient than Tanzania and Uganda to drought-induced power generation shortfalls, because Kenya uses a wider range of renewables, including geothermal power, biomass generation and, to a lesser extent, wind.

ii) Promote proven renewable energy technologies: East African governments are stuck in a vicious cycle of heavy investment in hydropower; they urgently need to break out of this. Investments in mature renewable energy options, such as geothermal, small-scale hydropower, biomass cogeneration and wind are ideal sources to complement largescale hydropower generation. They are environmentally friendly and provide additional development benefits, such as jobs and reduced oil import bills.

iii) Set renewable energy targets: Renewable energy targets in the countries’ energy policies must be entrenched in power purchase agreements (PPAs). This will induce more private sector-led investment in renewable energy. The PPAs must be attractive to companies, with a pre-determined standard offer (or feed-in tariff) at which the national utility will purchase all energy produced by renewable energy plants.

See Section: Hydropower in East Africa by Stephen Karekezi

See Full Issue: Adapting to Climate Change in Africa.Should Africa Take the Renewable Energy Path? Edited by Fatima Denton

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